International representative warns of potential return to conflict as Serb separatists push for their own army.
Bosnia is at a critical crossroads, with the threat of a national breakup looming. Christian Schmidt, the high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, has issued a stark warning that the country faces the greatest existential threat since the end of the war. This is due to the growing separatist movements, particularly from Serb leaders, who are now threatening to create their own army, effectively dividing the national armed forces.
In his recent report to the UN, Schmidt highlighted the very real danger of conflict reemerging if the Serb separatists follow through on their plans. If this happens, international peacekeepers may have to be redeployed to prevent further escalation. Currently, Bosnia’s peacekeeping force is led by a small EU contingent of 700, with NATO maintaining a minimal presence in Sarajevo. This week, the mandate for both forces is set for renewal, but Russia has indicated it may block any UN resolution that acknowledges Schmidt’s authority, potentially undermining his role in overseeing the post-Dayton peace agreement.
Schmidt expressed concern that Bosnia could regress into its pre-peace state, with Serb leader Milorad Dodik already threatening to dissolve state-level institutions. This includes dismantling the national army, which was developed with international aid over the last 25 years. As tensions rise, Dodik has warned of military intervention should the West attempt to counter his separatist actions, signaling possible support from Serbia and Russia.
Adding to the tension, Bosnian Serb police recently conducted counter-terrorism drills in areas with historical significance, including Mount Jahorina, a site linked to the siege of Sarajevo during the 1992-95 conflict. The growing rift has the potential to reignite violence in the region unless decisive action is taken by the international community.
