Russia’s troop buildup is not the real threat; the West’s response is what Putin wants.
For over two months, the West has been consumed with Russia’s preparations for a new invasion of Ukraine. However, the anticipated invasion has not materialized, and it’s unlikely to happen in the form most fear. The Kremlin has cleverly used the visible concentration of troops as a distraction to advance its real agenda: rolling back NATO. The West, by focusing on the troop buildup, has been deceived into negotiating on Russia’s terms.
While Russia’s military preparations are genuine, they’re not necessarily aimed at an immediate assault. When Russia conducted similar maneuvers last year, analysts dismissed the possibility of a large-scale invasion due to the lack of essential resources, such as medical supplies and ammunition. This time, Russia has ensured these materials are clearly visible, heightening fears of an imminent attack.
The real objective, however, has already been achieved. The mere presence of these troops has brought the US and NATO to the negotiation table, giving Russia the leverage it sought. Issues such as the occupation of Crimea and violations of ceasefires in eastern Ukraine have been overshadowed by the immediate concern of military escalation, shifting Western focus away from Russia’s broader strategic goals.
